Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Wikileaks on CPIM Kerala Leaders :Released August 26, 2011

Link : http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08CHENNAI272.html
Released on 26 August 2011.


SUBJECT: WHAT WOULD LENIN DO? KERALA CPM SAYS "SEEK OUT FDI"

REF:  A) MUMBAI 360 B) CHENNAI 251 C) NEW DELHI 2012

¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Political Counselor and Consulate staff surveyed Kerala's political and economic scene in conversations with political and business leaders, journalists, and academics during an August 11 -12 visit to the South Indian state's capital, Trivandrum (Thiruvananthapuram).  In a major shift, senior leaders from the state's ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) pleaded for assistance in attracting U.S. private sector investment in Kerala.Interlocutors from across the spectrum agreed that the CPM and its allies could lose a substantial portion of the 19 of 20 parliamentary seats they currently hold in upcoming elections.  But the potential for Congress to pick up seats in Kerala may be blunted by successful CPM outreach to Muslim voters.  The CPM is already aggressively courting Muslims by trying to tap into anger at the Congress party over U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation; Congress worries that a possible U.S. confrontation with Iran will put it further into trouble with this important constituency.  

End summary.

Kerala's CPM follows the West Bengal path
----------

¶2.  (SBU) In separate meetings, three Kerala CPM leaders emphasized
that the once-hostile leftist government is now eager to attract
foreign investment to the state.  CPM State Secretary Pinarayi
Vijayan opened the meeting, which was held in his office underneath
framed pictures of Stalin and Lenin, by telling Political Counselor
that "we need your assistance" in drawing U.S. investment to the
state.  Vijayan, who is a member of the CPM Politburo, added that
"we have no problems with American companies, no hesitations at
all."  He explained the change in the Kerala CPM's position on
investment by saying that "government does not have enough money to
adequately develop the state.  We need money from the private
sector."

¶3.  (SBU) Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac (CPM), echoed the
sentiments expressed by Vijayan, with whom Isaac is close.  Isaac
said "rapid industrialization is desirable but the government budget
is unable to support the required investment."  "We have to tap into
the private sector," he added while noting that "we'll use public
private partnerships" for infrastructure development.  As the
meeting closed, Isaac pulled Consulate Political/Economic officer
aside and requested that we urge U.S. companies to visit him to
discuss investing in Kerala.  Education Minister M.A. Baby (CPM),
also a close associate of Vijayan, agreed that Kerala needs foreign
direct investment (FDI) and made a spirited effort to convince
Political Counselor that Leninist economic principles permit FDI.

¶4.  (SBU) Sources outside of the CPM confirmed the shift in the
Kerala CPM's mindset towards private sector investment.  A
journalist said "change in the Kerala CPM is happening, but Baby and
Isaac have to make the changes through the backdoor; otherwise they
will be called 'neoliberals' or 'Gorbachev-ists' by the hardliners."
 Executives from US Technologies, an American IT company with a
major presence in Trivandrum, told Political Counselor that after
the CPM came to power in 2006 the Chief Minister met first with the
information technology sector to assure them that they would
continue to receive the support of the government.  The executives
added that they have since received "phenomenal support" from the
CPM government.  The 84-year old Chief Minister, V.S.
Achuthandandan, a hard-line ideologue, declined to meet with the
Political Counselor.  He claimed that he was in the middle of a
series of ayurvedic treatments, using the same reasoning to skip out
of a concurrent state-level party conclave that challenged his
policy approach.

Welcoming private investment, with some caveats
----------

¶5.  (SBU) The CPM leaders, however, made clear that their new
interest in FDI has its limits.  Vijayan and Isaac said that the
government would welcome investment in the service sector --
especially information technology, biotechnology, and tourism -- but
the state's commitment to protecting its environment makes it less
amenable to manufacturing.  Isaac said that Kerala will establish
more Special Economic Zones (SEZs), but the state will insist on
unionization in the SEZs.  He added that the state will "act to
protect its traditional farmers."  Education Minister Baby said that
although Kerala welcomes exchanges with U.S. universities the CPM
remains "ideologically opposed" to FDI in higher education.
Responding to Political Counselor's question about the long-running
dispute that has shut down Coca Cola's Kerala bottling plant,
Vijayan argued that the troubles experienced by Coca Cola should not
dissuade other U.S. companies from investing in Kerala.  "The Coca
Cola issue was not about American companies," he said, "but a local
problem, an environmental issue."  Vijayan went on to say that Coca
Cola got caught up when anti-Western New Delhi-based NGOs took up
the case.


CHENNAI 00000272  002 OF 003


Congress will gain seats, but how many?
----------

¶6. (SBU) There was a consensus that the CPM and its partners in
Kerala's Left Democratic Front (LDF) alliance would be hard-pressed
to replicate their 2004 performance when they won 19 of the state's
20 seats in the Lok Sabha (the Lower House of India's Parliament).
Finance Minister Isaac responded to Political Counselor's question
about the CPM's prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections by
saying "we have nowhere to go but down."  Isaac said that recent
infighting within the CPM has upset voters, but "we are getting our
act together" and he expects the CPM to hold onto 12 or 13 of the
seats.  Journalist contacts agreed with Isaac's assessment, saying
Congress and its allies are likely to win 8 seats (leaving the CPM
and its LDF allies with 12 seats).  Congress Opposition Leader Oomen
Chandy and Kerala Congress President Ramesh Chennithala were more
optimistic about their prospects:  both said they expect to win 12-
15 seats.

CPM to use civ-nuke to sway Muslims; all eyes on Iran
----------

¶7.  (SBU) Referring to Kerala's strong anti-American streak,
Opposition Leader Chandy glumly said "we are the victims" of the
United Progressive Alliance's victory in the July 22 trust vote (ref
C).  He said the CPM is already tapping into local anger --
especially among Kerala's substantial Muslim population -- over
Congress's pursuit of U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation.  The
journalists agreed that the distrust of closer ties with the U.S.
will figure prominently in the upcoming elections:  "Iraq and
Afghanistan are still potent issues in Kerala.  The CPM will use the
vote on the deal to get Muslim support."  Our interlocutors all
raised the subject of U.S. intentions towards Iran and the
possibility of U.S. confrontation with Tehran.  Congress President
Chennithala urged the United States to "find a peaceful way" to
address Iran's nuclear program, adding that U.S. military action
against Iran would further complicate his party's electoral
prospects.

Migration to Gulf States:  Terrorist Finance and Trafficking
----------

¶8.  (U) Academics with the Center for Development Studies (CDS)
described Kerala's history of extensive external migration.  They
explained that 1.8 million Keralites live abroad and another 900,000
in other states in India; the combined figure of 2.7 million
accounts for almost 10% of the state's population.  These 2.7
million Keralite migrants, in turn, support 9 million people left
behind in Kerala (almost one third of the state's population) by
sending back remittances that amount to 20% of the state's GDP.  CDS
scholars said that unmarried women constitute an increasing share of
migration.  A large number of these unmarried female migrants take
"a huge risk" by going to work as domestic laborers.  When Political
Counselor asked whether many of these women are victims of
trafficking in persons, a CDS scholar who focuses on gender issues
said "a small segment" of the population fall victim to trafficking.
 She emphasized that while the vast majority of the female domestic
workers are not trafficked, they still face serious sexual
harassment from their employers.

¶9.  (SBU) Finance Minister Isaac raised the subject of the informal
money transfer system known as "hawala," saying that it is
"impossible" to stop the movement of funds from the Gulf states to
Kerala.  Isaac told Political Counselor that money from the Gulf is
"definitely funding Indian terrorist groups," including the Students
Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and the group that claimed
responsibility for the recent bombings in Bangalore and Ahmedabad,
the Indian Mujahideen (ref A and B).  Isaac said it is likely that
Keralites help get the money to the Indian terror groups, but that
the funds come from "wealthy Gulf Arabs."  (Note:  In an August 11
presentation on terrorist finance Arabinda Acharya, an academic from
the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said
much the same in a discussion of the use of hawala by Gulf Arabs to
fund Indian terrorist groups.  Acharya said wealthy Gulf Arabs,
especially Saudis, have their Kerala migrant employees send money to
Indian terrorist groups through hawala channels.  Acharya "firmly
believes" that funding for attacks in Bangalore and Hyderabad came
through this method.  End note.)

Comment:  CPM reformists confident;
Civ-Nuke will help left retain seats
----------

¶10.  (SBU) Comment:  The Kerala CPM, which is generally understood
to be more dogmatic than its West Bengal counterpart, is clearly
undergoing a major economic policy shift.  The openness with which
Vijayan, Isaac, and Baby expressed their desire for U.S. investment
to American diplomats was startling and demonstrated confidence that
their reformist faction has the upper hand over the more dogmatic
wing of the Kerala CPM led by Chief Minister Achuthanandan.  By

CHENNAI 00000272  003 OF 003


encouraging private investment, especially overseas and American
investment, Vijayan is leading the Kerala CPM is towards the
pragmatism exemplified by the West Bengal CPM.  The volte-face
reflects a growing concern that the state is being left out of the
Indian growth story, especially when compared to its neighbors, the
shining stars of South India.

¶11.  (SBU) Comment continued:  The Kerala CPM and its allies are in
the difficult position of defending the 19 of 20 parliamentary seats
from Kerala they won in 2004, which is exacerbated by the fissures
within the normally disciplined CPM.  But the peculiar political
geography of Kerala is in the leftists' favor.  The CPM will be able
to tap into the state's long-running anti-Americanism by bludgeoning
its Congress rivals about U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation.
Moreover, with Muslims making up almost a quarter of the state's
population, the CPM can drum support by playing to this
constituency's anger at U.S. policy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran.
These factors will likely keep the CPM's losses in the range of 7-8
seats rather than the 12-15 that the Congress's leaders dream of
capturing.  End comment.

KAPLAN

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മാധ്യമം (35) CPM (29) VS (28) HMT (26) HMT-മാതൃഭൂമി (24) മാതൃഭൂമി (19) മനോരമ (17) മംഗളം (16) SEZ (14) ലാവ്‌ലിന്‍ (13) ലോട്ടറി വിവാദം (13) പിണറായി (9) ലാവലിന്‍ (8) MetroVaartha-VS (7) ഒഞ്ചിയം (7) ടിപി ചന്ദ്രശേഖരന്‍ (7) എം. ജയചന്ദ്രന്‍ (6) ലാവ്‌ലിന്‍ CPM (6) ലാവ്‌ലിന്‍-മാതൃഭൂമി (6) സ്മാര്‍ട്ട്‌സിറ്റി (6) ഇന്ദു (5) സിപിഎം (5) Revolutionary Marxist Party (4) ആണവക്കരാര്‍ (4) ആലുവാപ്പുഴ (4) ദേശാഭിമാനി ലേഖനം (4) നിധി (4) ലാവലിൻ രേഖകൾ (4) ശ്രീപദ്മനാഭസ്വാമി ക്ഷേത്രം (4) സുഭാഷ് (4) HMT-സി.പി.ഐ (3) LDF (3) Wikileaks (3) Wikileaks-Kerala (3) smartcity (3) ആണവക്കച്ചവടം (3) ആണവക്കരാർ (3) കോണ്‍ഗ്രസ്‌ (3) ഗുജറാത്ത് (3) തീവ്രവാദം (3) തോമസ് ഐസക് (3) ദേശാഭിമാനി (3) ബാംഗ്ലൂര്‍ സ്ഫോടനം (3) മദിനി (3) മൂന്നാര്‍ (3) സ്ഫോടനം (3) CBI (2) CPIM Wikileaks (2) Dalit Oppression (2) HMT- അഡ്വ. ജനറല്‍ (2) HMT-അന്വേഷണസമിതി (2) HMT-ഹൈക്കോടതി (2) Reservation (2) അഡ്മിറല്‍ ബി.ആര്‍. മേനോന്‍ (2) അപ്പുക്കുട്ടന്‍ വള്ളിക്കുന്ന് (2) അബാദ് (2) അഭിഷേക് (2) അമേരിക്ക (2) അമേരിക്കന്‍ പതനം (2) ആര്‍.എസ്.എസ് (2) ഇലക്ഷന്‍ (2) കെ.എം.മാത്യു-ദേശാഭിമാനി (2) കോടതി (2) കോടിയേരി (2) ക്യൂബ റീമിക്സ് (2) ക്രൈം നന്ദകുമാര്‍ (2) ഗ്രൂപ്പിസം (2) തിരുവിതാം‌കൂര്‍ (2) ദീപിക (2) പാഠപുസ്തകം (2) പി.കെ. പ്രകാശ് (2) ബാലനന്ദന്‍ (2) ഭൂപരിഷ്കരണം (2) മദനി (2) മുഖ്യമന്ത്രി (2) വി.എസ് (2) വിദ്യാഭ്യാസം (2) വിവരാവകാശ നിയമം (2) വീരേന്ദ്രകുമാര്‍ (2) സാമ്പത്തിക തകര്‍ച്ച (2) സി.ആര്‍. നീലകണ്ഠന്‍ (2) സുപ്രിം കോടതി (2) ഹര്‍കിഷന്‍സിങ് സുര്‍ജിത് (2) 2008 (1) A K Antony (1) Aarakshan (1) Achuthananthan-wikileaks (1) Apple (1) Arlen Specter visit-Wikileaks (1) Army (1) Baby-Wikileaks (1) British India (1) Budget (1) CITU (1) Capitalism (1) Coca Cola-wikileaks (1) Creamy layer (1) Dalits (1) Defence budget 2011-12 (1) Election 2009 Internal Analysis (1) HMT--ഉമ്മന്‍ചാണ്ടി (1) HMT-HMT (1) HMT-UDF (1) HMT-VS (1) HMT-അഡീഷണല്‍ അഡ്വക്കേറ്റ്‌ ജനറല്‍ (1) HMT-കളക്ടര്‍ (1) HMT-ധനമന്ത്രി (1) HMT-നിയമവകുപ്പ്‌ (1) HMT-പി.സി. ജോര്‍ജ്‌ (1) HMT-പിണറായി (1) HMT-യൂത്ത്‌ കോണ്‍ഗ്രസ്‌ (1) HMT-റവന്യൂവകുപ്പ്‌ (1) HMT-വെളിയം (1) HMT-സര്‍ക്കാര്‍ (1) HMT-സര്‍വേ സൂപ്രണ്ട്‌ (1) Hackers (1) History of Silicon Valley (1) Industrial Township Area Development Act of 1999 (1) Information Technology (1) Iraq and Kerala elections-wikileaks (1) Isaac-Wikileaks (1) Justice VK Bali-wikileaks (1) Kerala Foreign Investment wikileaks (1) Lord Macaulay (1) Manorama Editiorial board-wikileaks (1) Meritocracy (1) Microspoft (1) News Statesman (1) Pepsi-wikileaks (1) Pinarayi-Wikileaks (1) Prabhat Patnaik (1) Presidency College (1) RSS (1) Self Financing Colleges (1) Silicon Valley (1) Social Networking (1) USA (1) Vibrant Gujarat (1) mangalam (1) അഡ്വക്കറ്റ് കെ. രാം കുമാര്‍ (1) അഡ്വക്കറ്റ് കെ.ജയശങ്കര്‍ (1) അണ്ണാ ഹസാരെ (1) അധ്യാപകന്‍ (1) അഭിമുഖം ളാഹ ഗോപാലന്‍ ചെങ്ങറ മാധ്യമം (1) അമിത് ഷാ (1) അറസ്റ്റ് (1) അവയവദാനം (1) അസവര്‍ണര്‍ക്ക് നല്ലത് ഇസ്ലാം (1) അഹമ്മദ്‌ (1) ആരോഗ്യവകുപ്പ് (1) ആസിയാന്‍ കരാര്‍ (1) ഇന്ദിരഗാന്ധി (1) ഇസ്രയേല്‍ (1) ഈഴവര്‍ (1) ഉമ്മഞ്ചാണ്ടി (1) എ.കെ.ആന്റണി (1) എം ജി എസ് (1) എം.പി.പരമേശ്വരന്‍ (1) എന്‍. പി. ചെക്കുട്ടി (1) എന്‍.ജി.ഓ. (1) എന്‍ഐടി (1) എല്‍ഡിഎഫ് സര്‍ക്കാര്‍ (1) എളമരം കരിം (1) എളമരം കരീം (1) ഐജി സന്ധ്യ (1) ഒറീസ (1) കടവൂര്‍ (1) കരിമഠം കോളനി സർവ്വേ (1) കാബിനറ്റ്‌ രേഖകള്‍ (1) കാര്‍ത്തികേയന്‍ (1) കിളിരൂർ (1) കെ എം മാത്യു (1) കെ. സുകുമാരന്‍ (1) കെ.ആര്‍.മീര (1) കെ.ഇ.എന്‍ (1) കെ.എം റോയി (1) കെ.എം.മാത്യു- മാതൃഭൂമി (1) കെ.എം.മാത്യു-പിണറായി (1) കെ.എം.മാത്യു-മനോരമ (1) കെ.എന്‍. പണിക്കര്‍ (1) കെ.ടി. ഹനീഫ് (1) കെ.രാജേശ്വരി (1) കെ.സുധാകരന്‍ (1) കെഇഎന്‍ (1) കേന്ദ്രസിലബസ്സ് (1) കേരള കൗമുദി (1) കേരളം (1) കേരളത്തിലെ ക്ഷേത്രഭരണം (1) കേരളാ ബജറ്റ് 2011 (1) കേശവമേനോന്‍ (1) കൊച്ചി മെട്രോ (1) കൊലപാതകം (1) ക്രമസമാധാനം (1) ഗവര്‍ണ്ണര്‍ (1) ഗവേഷണ വിദ്യാര്‍ത്ഥിനി (1) ഗാന്ധി (1) ഗോപാലകൃഷ്ണന്‍ (1) ഗോള്‍വാള്‍ക്കര്‍ (1) ചാന്നാര്‍ ലഹള (1) ചുംബനസമരം (1) ചെങ്ങറ (1) ജനശക്തി (1) ജന്മഭൂമി (1) ജന്‍‌ലോക്പാല്‍ ബില്‍ (1) ജലവൈദ്യുതപദ്ധതി (1) ജാതി (1) ടി.വി.ആര്‍. ഷേണായ്‌ (1) ടീസ്റ്റാ സെറ്റല്‍വാദ് (1) ഡി. ബാബുപോള്‍ (1) ഡി. രാജസേനന്‍ (1) തേജസ് ദ്വൈവാരിക: ഓഗസ്റ്റ് 1-14 (1) തോമസ് ജേക്കബ് (1) ദാരിദ്ര്യം (1) ദിലീപ് രാഹുലന്‍ (1) ദേവസ്വം ബോഡ് (1) നരേന്ദ്ര മോഡി (1) നാലാം ലോകം (1) നാവീക ആസ്ഥാന സര്‍വേ (1) ന്യൂനപക്ഷ സ്ഥാപനം (1) പത്ര കട്ടിംഗ് (1) പത്രാധിപര്‍ (1) പരമ്പര (1) പലവക (1) പവ്വത്തില്‍ (1) പാര്‍ട്ടികളുടെ സ്വത്ത് (1) പാര്‍ലമെന്റ് (1) പാര്‍ലമെന്റ് ബില്‍ (1) പാലസ്തീന്‍ (1) പാലോളി (1) പി. കിഷോര്‍ (1) പി.കെ പ്രകാശ് (1) പി.സി. ജോര്‍ജ്‌ (1) പോലീസ് (1) പോഷകാഹാരം (1) പ്രകടനപത്രിക (1) പ്രഭാത് പട്‌നായക് (1) പ്രഭാവര്‍മ്മ (1) പൗവ്വത്തില്‍ (1) ഫാഷിസം (1) ഫ്ലാഷ് (1) ബാബര്‍ (1) ബാലന്‍ (1) ബിനു പി. പോള്‍ (1) ബോണ്ട്‌ (1) മണ്ഡലപുനര്‍നിര്‍ണയം (1) മതപരിവര്‍ത്തനം (1) മധ്യരേഖ (1) മന്ത്രിസ്ഥാനം (1) മരണം (1) മാതൃഭൂമി സര്‍ക്കുലര്‍ (1) മാതൃഭൂമി-സംഘപരിവാര്‍ ബന്ധം (1) മാധ്യമം വാരിക: ജൂലൈ 28 (1) മാവോ സെ തുങ് (1) മാർട്ടിൻ (1) മിഡില്‍ ഈസ്റ്റ് (1) മുകുന്ദന്‍ (1) മുസ്ലീം (1) മെഡിക്കല്‍കോളജ് (1) മോഹന്‍ ലാല്‍ (1) യു.ഡി.എഫ്. (1) യുഡിഎഫ് (1) രണ്ടാംലോക മഹായുദ്ധം (1) രാംകുമാര്‍ (1) രാജേശ്വരി (1) റെഡ് റെഡ് സ്റ്റാര്‍ (1) റെയില്‍വേ (1) റെവന്യൂ വരുമാനം (1) ലോക്പാല്‍‌ (1) ളാഹ ഗോപാലന്‍ (1) വയലാര്‍ ഗോപകുമാര്‍ (1) വരദാചാരി (1) വി.എം. സുധീരന്‍ (1) വി.ഏ. അരുൺ കുമാർ (1) വി.കെ ബാലി (1) വിജയരാഘവന്‍ (1) വിജു വി. നായർ (1) വിതയത്തില്‍ (1) വിദഗ്ധ സമിതി റിപ്പോർട്ട് (1) വിദ്യാഭ്യാസ ബജറ്റ് വിഹിതം (1) വൈക്കം സത്യാഗ്രഹം (1) വൈദ്യുതിച്ചിലവ് (1) വൈബ്രന്റ് ഗുജറാത്ത് (1) വ്യവസായം (1) വ്യാജവാര്‍ത്ത (1) ശാസ്ത്രപ്രതിഭ (1) ശിശു വികസനം (1) ശ്രീനാരായണ ഗുരു (1) ഷാനവാസ്‌ (1) സംഘപരിവാര്‍ (1) സംസ്ക്കാരം (1) സംസ്ഥാനസിലബസ്സ് (1) സര്‍ക്കാര്‍ (1) സാങ്കേതിക വിദ്യാഭ്യാസം (1) സാന്റിയാഗോ മാര്‍ട്ടിന്‍ (1) സാമൂഹ്യ നീതി (1) സി.ബി.ഐ (1) സിബിഐ (1) സിമി (1) സുഗതന്‍ പി. ബാലന്‍ (1) സുരേഷ്‌ കുമാര്‍ (1) സ്വകാര്യപ്രാക്ടീസ് (1) സർവ്വ ശിക്ഷാ അഭിയാൻ (1) സർവ്വേ (1) ഹനാന്‍ ബിന്‍‌ത് ഹാഷിം (1) ഹിന്ദുത്വ (1) ഹൈക്കോടതി (1) ഹൈഡ് ആക്റ്റ് (1)